Fickle lot the press. First call an election, then don't. A couple of polls put Labour and Conservative within four points of each other and another one shows them tied. However these kind of instant reactions are no judge.
I think that any Labour lead over the Conservatives at this point in time is incredible and that the current poll ratings Labour are seeing at the moment are the best it is going to get over the next couple of years. With a slowing economy and public expenditure restraint kicking in there is only one way down.
If however Brown runs scared than he will need a good wheeze in order to absorb some of the s**t that will be dumped all over him. He could promise to legislate in the forthcoming Parliament for fixed term Parliaments to remove the power to call snap elections from the Prime Minister. That would return him to the programme he set out for Government when first elected as Labour Leader.
Friday, October 5, 2007
Thursday, October 4, 2007
Yesterdays speech to the Conservative Party conference by David Cameron was well structured and delivered. Without notes or an autocue he painted a picture of what he wanted to do if elected to run Britain.
Of course Tony Blair also delivered good speeches and we should know now to look at the substance. Certain things jumped out at me as items of concern. He will not sign the latest European Treaty and will pull Britain out of the Social Chapter. You have to ask how our partners will react to this and whether continued membership would be possible. He talked about expelling unruly pupils from Schools but nothing about what would happen to them then. It is unlikely that for many of these children family would be able to or want to give the love and support necessary so we do need a state able to intervene. Tax cuts are back on the agenda however so are promises of more public spending. More prison places and a bigger army for example. Increased competitiveness for business looks to be at the expense of workers rights and wages. He talks well about the environment yet not one single policy that would make a major difference to carbon emissions has been adopted. There was some good stuff too. On Local Government and on how weak we are to tackle anti-social behaviour.
Overall a days good publicity however I doubt that the speech will make any difference to Gordon Brown when deciding when to call the election. Perhaps it may make him rule out a television debate because Cameron is a far better performer.
Away from the politicians administrators who would have to carry out any election in November have been warning that up to a million people may be disenfranchised. New electoral registers do not come on stream until December so that those who have moved in the last year, or those that have recently turned 18, may have problems voting. Applications can be made to go on a rolling register however Local Authorities are going to need to take on shed loads of staff to process all these as well as postal votes.
We do not seem to have the necessary systems in place to carry out an election with little notice called at the whim of a Prime Minister so you wonder why we give them that power. Gordon Brown is at risk of seeming to put the interests of the Labour Party above those of the country and he needs to make a decision quickly.
Of course Tony Blair also delivered good speeches and we should know now to look at the substance. Certain things jumped out at me as items of concern. He will not sign the latest European Treaty and will pull Britain out of the Social Chapter. You have to ask how our partners will react to this and whether continued membership would be possible. He talked about expelling unruly pupils from Schools but nothing about what would happen to them then. It is unlikely that for many of these children family would be able to or want to give the love and support necessary so we do need a state able to intervene. Tax cuts are back on the agenda however so are promises of more public spending. More prison places and a bigger army for example. Increased competitiveness for business looks to be at the expense of workers rights and wages. He talks well about the environment yet not one single policy that would make a major difference to carbon emissions has been adopted. There was some good stuff too. On Local Government and on how weak we are to tackle anti-social behaviour.
Overall a days good publicity however I doubt that the speech will make any difference to Gordon Brown when deciding when to call the election. Perhaps it may make him rule out a television debate because Cameron is a far better performer.
Away from the politicians administrators who would have to carry out any election in November have been warning that up to a million people may be disenfranchised. New electoral registers do not come on stream until December so that those who have moved in the last year, or those that have recently turned 18, may have problems voting. Applications can be made to go on a rolling register however Local Authorities are going to need to take on shed loads of staff to process all these as well as postal votes.
We do not seem to have the necessary systems in place to carry out an election with little notice called at the whim of a Prime Minister so you wonder why we give them that power. Gordon Brown is at risk of seeming to put the interests of the Labour Party above those of the country and he needs to make a decision quickly.
Wednesday, October 3, 2007
What is this Blog all about
This Blog is here for me to write my thoughts on the election campaign both nationally, and locally in Kingston and Surbiton, for the forthcoming General Election.
A few weeks ago I thought that the idea of a winter election was nonsense. However it now appears as if the momentum is such that Gordon Brown will have little choice but to call one. It seems ludicrous that here in the UK the Prime Minister has the power to call an election at any time within a five year envelope. The power to do that gives the ruling party a massive advantage over opponents. However the Opposition cannot complain too much. Both David Cameron and Sir Menzies Campbell called for a General Election shortly after Gordon Brown took over from Tony Blair.
Labour has a sustained lead over the Conservatives in the Polls. Newly selected candidates have had little time to make themselves known to the local electorate. The election speculation has forced the Conservatives to announce policy positions which take them back to basics. Tax cuts for the well off funded in part by forcing sick people back to work. The Liberal Democrats are polling poorly seeming irrelevant however providing policy ideas which the main two parties cherry pick. So it seems good for Labour.
However do we really know what might be in a Labour manifesto? Well no. It seems that they will be fighting a campaign based on experience, strength and judgement. Highly personalised pitting Brown against Cameron. Yet Labour poll badly in Scotland and any prolonged probing of the record of the Government on Iraq or violent crime for example and it all unravels a bit.
So if Brown goes for it it will be a fascinating election. The positions of the parties are built on quicksand and will easily fluctuate. Events could swing things. If people come to think that they are being bounced (frightened) into giving Labour 5 more years in an unfair manner then things may turn against them.
In my local constituency here Edward Davey the current Liberal Democrat MP will be fighting Helen Whately the Conservative candidate. Only recently selected Helen is really unknown amongst people in the constituency and will have her work cut out to make any inroads into Ed Daveys 8,000 majority. Labour simply do not have the capacity to fight a campaign here and you would have thought will be helping out in local seats where it is important to retain a Labour MP in power. Controversial decisions by the local Liberal Democrat Council may help the Conservatives however the grip on the constituency which the incumbent holds has just been graphically illustrated by the local newspaper the Surrey Comet. Just last week in launching a 'stop health cuts campaign' in conjunction with Edward Davey the Conservatives were nowhere to be seen.
Here, I hope to record my thoughts on events of the next few weeks.
A few weeks ago I thought that the idea of a winter election was nonsense. However it now appears as if the momentum is such that Gordon Brown will have little choice but to call one. It seems ludicrous that here in the UK the Prime Minister has the power to call an election at any time within a five year envelope. The power to do that gives the ruling party a massive advantage over opponents. However the Opposition cannot complain too much. Both David Cameron and Sir Menzies Campbell called for a General Election shortly after Gordon Brown took over from Tony Blair.
Labour has a sustained lead over the Conservatives in the Polls. Newly selected candidates have had little time to make themselves known to the local electorate. The election speculation has forced the Conservatives to announce policy positions which take them back to basics. Tax cuts for the well off funded in part by forcing sick people back to work. The Liberal Democrats are polling poorly seeming irrelevant however providing policy ideas which the main two parties cherry pick. So it seems good for Labour.
However do we really know what might be in a Labour manifesto? Well no. It seems that they will be fighting a campaign based on experience, strength and judgement. Highly personalised pitting Brown against Cameron. Yet Labour poll badly in Scotland and any prolonged probing of the record of the Government on Iraq or violent crime for example and it all unravels a bit.
So if Brown goes for it it will be a fascinating election. The positions of the parties are built on quicksand and will easily fluctuate. Events could swing things. If people come to think that they are being bounced (frightened) into giving Labour 5 more years in an unfair manner then things may turn against them.
In my local constituency here Edward Davey the current Liberal Democrat MP will be fighting Helen Whately the Conservative candidate. Only recently selected Helen is really unknown amongst people in the constituency and will have her work cut out to make any inroads into Ed Daveys 8,000 majority. Labour simply do not have the capacity to fight a campaign here and you would have thought will be helping out in local seats where it is important to retain a Labour MP in power. Controversial decisions by the local Liberal Democrat Council may help the Conservatives however the grip on the constituency which the incumbent holds has just been graphically illustrated by the local newspaper the Surrey Comet. Just last week in launching a 'stop health cuts campaign' in conjunction with Edward Davey the Conservatives were nowhere to be seen.
Here, I hope to record my thoughts on events of the next few weeks.
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